AnA'  n 


Issued  January  20,  1915. 

U.  S.  DEPARTMENT  OF  AGRICULTURE, 

BUREAU  OF  '  "ilOT-  fcfi  l':\J  VTES, 

LEON  M.  l^TABROOK,  fc  l 


Government  Crop  Reports: 


THEIR  VALUeTsCOP 
PREPAuAION. 


Circular  17, 


WASHINGTON: 

GOVERNMENT    PRINTING  OFFICE. 

1915. 


Digitized  by  the  Internet  Archive 

in  2012  with  funding  from 

University  of  Florida,  George  A.  Smathers  Libraries  with  support  from  LYRASIS  and  the  Sloan  Foundation 


http://archive.org/details/cropreOOunit 


Issued  January  ! 

U.  S.  DEPARTMENT  OF  AGRICULTURE, 
BUREAU  OF  CROP  ESTIMATES, 

LEON  M.  ESTABROOK,  Chief. 


Government  Crop  Reports: 

THEIR  VALUE,  SCOPE,  AND 
PREPARATION. 


Circular  17,  Revised. 


WASHINGTON: 
GOVERNMENT   PRINTING   OFFICE. 

1915. 


ORGANIZATION  OF  BUREAU  OF  CROP  ESTIMATES. 


Statistician  and  Chief:  Leon  M.  Estabrook. 
Assistant  Statistician  and  Assistant  Chief:  Xat  C.  Murray. 
Chief  Clerk:  O.  N.  Fansler. 
Division  of  Crop  Reports:  S.  A  Jones,  Chief;  Edward  Crane,  Assistant  Chief. 
Division  of  Crop  Records:  Frank  Andrews,  Chief. 
Statistical    Scientists:  George    K.    Holmes.    Charles    M.    Dauguerty.    and 

Fred  J.  Blair. 
Crop   Reporting   Board:  Leon   M.    Estabrook.    Chairman:   X  ^t   C.    Murray. 
S.  A.  Jones,  George  K.  Holmes,  and  two  or  more  field  agents  called  in  from 
the  field  force. 


LETTER  OF  TRANSMITTAL. 


U.  S.  Department  of  Agriculture, 
Bureau  of  Crop  Es 
Washington,  D.  C,  Od 
Sir:  I  have  the  honor  to  transmit  herewith  and  recomm< 
publication  a  revision  of  Circular  17  of  the  Bureau  of  Crop 
mates  (formerly  Bureau  of  Statistics)  entitled  "Government  Crop 
Reports."     This  revision  is  made  necessary  by  certain  changes  in 
organization  and  methods  which  have  taken  place  during  the  past 
vear.     The  material  presented  in  this  circular  is  intended  for  the 
information  of  the  large  number  of  voluntary  crop  reporters  of  the 
bureau  (approximately  150,000)  and  for  use  in  answering  numerous 
inquiries  with  respect  to  the  origin,  value,  methods,  and  scope  of 
the  crop-reporting  service  of  the  department.     The  circular  is 
divided  into  three  parts,  namely,  "Part  I,  Origin  and  Value  of 
Crop  Reports;   Part  II,  Scope  and  Method  of   Crop  Reporting; 
Part  III,  Bases  of  Crop  Estimates,"  because  the  inquiries 
formation  received  by  the  bureau  fall  mai  three 

Very  respectfully, 


H«>n.   D.   I      SOUS  'ON, 


Leon  M.   Estabrook, 

Chief  of  / 


CONTENTS. 


Part  I.— Origin  axd  Value  of  Crop  Reports:  Page. 

Origin  of  the  crop-reporting  service 7 

Value  of  crop  estimates 8 

Part  II. — Scope  axd  Method  of  Crop  Reports: 

Scope  of  crop  reports 10 

Methods  of  crop  reporting 14 

Transmission  of  reports  to  bureau  by  correspondents. . .  15 

Preparation  of  reports L5 

Method  of  issuing  reports lb 

Part  III. — Bases  of  Crop  Estimates: 

Acreage  estimates 17 

Live-stock  estimates 19 

Use  of  rural  mail  carriers 19 

Typical  farms  for  estimating  acreage  and  live  stock 20 

The  '•normal"  as  a  basis  of  condition  reports 20 

Accuracy  of  condition  reports 24 

Conclusion 27 

5 


GOVERNMENT   CROP  REPORTS. 


PART  I.  -ORIGIN  AKi)  VALUE  OF  CROP  REPORTS. 

ORIGIN  OF  THE  CfcOP-REPCRTING  SERVICE. 

The  first  appropriation  authorized  by  Congn 

dein  L839,  wh 
nd  101  the  collection  and  distributi 

Patents.    Th  -  nation 

unng  <>-  the  present  Department  ulture 

Similar  appropriations  continued  to  I  {  p„r. 

pose  01  collecting  agricultural  statistics.  ftnd  (ji- 
increasing  in  amount  as  the  value  and  ii-»rx>rtance  oi   T 
came  1  ;nized.     From  1839  to  1>   . 

nail  force  in  the  Patenl  Office,  but  in  186k.it  wa8  - 
to  the  Department  of  Agriculture  in  accordanct  with.  th« 
passed  May  15,  1862,  establishing  the  department,  "the  general 
design  and  duties  of  which  shall  be  to  acquire  and  to  ca.[\-,.  o  among 
the  people  of  the  United  S  i-mation  on  subjects  com 

with  agriculture,  in  the  most  general  and  comprehensive  sense  >, 
thatword."     The  commissioner  was  required  by  i     -  I    'pro- 

cure and  preserve  all  information  concerning  agriculture  which  he 
btain  by  means  of  books,  correspondent  y  practical 

and  scientific  experij  xperimente 

6hall  be  kept  in  his  office,  by  the  collection  of 
other  appropriate  means  within  his  power." 
The  first  appropriation  for  collecting  agricultur 
•  partmei  i  was  provided  for>by  the  act  oi  Februar 
which  was  made  in  bulk  for  the  work  of  i  I  unting 

in  all  to  sOO.000.    The  then  Commissioner  oi 
a  part  of  this  amount  for  i  nd  ap- 

pointed a  statistidai  For  the  fiscal  j 

June  30.  1865,  the  first  distinct  ai  d  separate  pro  madi 

for  col ;  ricultural  statistics  for  information  and  n 

the  amount  of  $20,000  was  appropriated. 

Froin  an  allotment  of  a  few  thousand  dollars  each  y 
the  crop-reporting  service  has  been  evolved,  perfected,  a] 
larged  into  th  I  this  department. 

The  appropriation  act  for  the  Department  of  Agriculture  for  the 
■ 
for  the  I  he  appn  for  the 

e  have  be<  i 
during 
the  bureau  ha-  •        ondingly  enlar 

7 

6fi903*—15 2 


g  BUREAU  OF    CROP  ESTIMATES. 

VALUE  OF  CROP  ESTIMATES. 

The  practical  value  of  the  Government  crop  estimates  results 
from  the  fact  that  they  are  based  upon  reports  of  farmers  and  others 
in  every  county  and  township  in  the  United  States  and  upon  re- 
ports of  trained  field  agents  in  each  State;  they  are  made  monthly 
during  the  crop  season;  they  are  checked  up  from  every  possible 
source  of  information;  the  final  reports  are  prepared  and  issued  by  a 
crop-reporting  board  of  experts;  and  all  Government  employees 
engaged  in  the  preparation  of  the  crop  estimates  are  prohibited  by 
law  from  giving  out  information  concerning  them  or  in  utilizing 
information  so  obtained  for  their  own  benefit  directly  or  indirectly 
prior  to  the  date  and  hour  of  puliation,  so  that  the  reports  when 
issued  are  known  to  be  as  accuse  as  it  is  practicable  to  make  them, 
as  well  as  impartial,  disinterested,  and  therefore  dependable.  No 
public  organization,  and  certainly  no  private  corporation  m  the 
United  States  and  probacy  in  *be  world,  is  so  well  organized  and 
equipped  for  the  wojr>  °t  reporting  on  crop  conditions  and  pros- 
pects as  the  present  bureau  of  Crop  Estimates. 

Without  such  °  system  of  GoA'ernment  crop  estimates,  specu- 
lators interested111  raising  or  lowering  prices  of  farm  products  would 
issue  so  man/  conflicting  and  misleading  reports  that  it  would  be 
practical  impossible  for  anyone,  without  great  expense,  to  form 
an  o~curate  estimate  of  crop  conditions  and  prospects.  Farmers 
v-ould  suffer  most  from  such  conditions,  because  they  are  not  so 
well  organized  as  other  lines  of  business  nor  are  they  in  a  position  to 
take  advantage  of  fluctuations  in  market  prices. 

Farmers  are  benefited  by  the  Government  crop  reports  both 
directly  and  indirectly;  directly,  by  being  kept  informed  of  crop 
prospects  and  prices  outside  of  their  own  immediate  districts,  and 
indirectly,  because  the  disinterested  reports  of  the  Government 
tend  to  prevent  the  circulation  of  false  or  misleading  reports  by 
speculators  who  are  interested  in  controlling  or  manipulating 
prices. 

The  farmer  can  not,  by  refusing  to  report  the  condition  of  crops 
for  his  locality,  prevent  buyers  and  speculators  from  knowing  the 
condition  of  the  crop.  It  is  well  known  that  speculators  and  large 
dealers  in  farm  products  do  not  depend  entirely  upon  Government 
reports  for  information  concerning  crop  prospects.  They  maintain 
regular  systems  of  their  own  for  collecting  crop  information .  They 
have  traveling  agents  and  correspondents  (usually  local  buyers) 
throughout  the  United  States  who  keep  them  posted,  and  the  large 
buyer  or  speculator,  in  return,  gives  these  local  buyers  or  corre- 
spondents information  in  regard  to  general  conditions  and  prices. 
The  local  buyers  know  the  conditions  of  crops  in  their  own  vicinity 
better,  as  a  rule,  than  the  average  farmer,  because  it  is  their  business 
to  keep  well  informed. 

If  the  Government  crop  estimates  should  be  discontinued  the 
farmer  would  have  no  reliable  information  concerning  crop  pros- 
pects except  in  his  own  immediate  neighborhood,  and  for  crop 


GOVERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS.  0 

prospects  in  other  localities  he  would  have  to  depend  upon  such 
information  as  interested  speculators  and  dealers  might  choose  to 
publish  ia  the  ]'.  i  m  might  or  might  not  be  correct. 

Trices  in  his  own  local  market  stre  influenced,  as  a  rule,  more  by  the 
condition  of  the  whole  crop  throughout  the  Sum-'  or  the  United 
in  foreign  countries,  than  they  are  by  local  con- 
ditions. The  entire  wheat  crop  of  his  county  may  be  destroyed 
and  yet  prices  may  be  low,  or  his  county  may  have  a  bumper  crop 
and  prices  be  unusually  high,  depending  upon  whether  or  not  there 
is  a  surplus  or  deficiency  i  ire  crop  elsewhere.     In  a  sense 

the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates  is  a  form  of  farmers'  cooperation, 
wherein  each  farm  crop  reporter  gives  information  about  his  locality 
and  in  return  receives  information  about  the  entire  country,  the 
bureau  merely  acting  as  a  clearing  house  for  such  cooperative 
exchange. 

Some  of  the  private  crop  reports  which  are  published  in  the  news- 
papers are  honestly  prepared  and  are  more  or  less  accurate,  depend- 
ing upon  the  extent  and  sources  of  information;  on  the  other  hand, 
misleading  crop  reports  are  known  to  be  frequently  circulated  in 
order  to  raise  or  lower  prices  in  the  interest  of  speculators.  If  the 
farmer  reads  the  crop  estimates  and  forecasts  of  the  Government  as 
they  are  issued  he  will  be  in  a  position  to  judge  for  himself  what  the 
crop  prospects  are,  as  well  as  probable  prices,  so  that  he  can  decide 
intelligently  how  to  market  his  produce  and  how  to  deal  with  the 
local  buyers.  Even  the  farmers  who  do  not  keep  posted  are 
indirectly  benefited  by  the  publication  of  Government  crop  esti- 
mates, because  these  estimates  automatically  tend  to  check  and 
lessen  the  injurious  effects  of  false  reports  sent  out  broadcast  by 
interested  speculators  and  their  agents,  in  the  same  way  that  a 
police  or  constable  force  tends  to  check  but  not  entirely  prevent 
crime  in  a  community. 

The  m<  •;<•  certainty  there  is  as  to  the  probable  supply  and  demand 
the  less  chance  for  speculation  and  loss  in  the  business  of  dis- 
tributing and  marketing  the  crop,  which  is  a  benefit  both  to  the 
producer  and  to  the  consumer. 

Large  manufacturing  linns,  agricultural  implement  and  hardware 
companies,  who  neither  buy  nor  sell  farm  products,  are  much  inter- 
ested in  crop  prospects.  Thisknowledoeonablestherntodistribute 
their  wares  economic  ally,  sending  much  to  sections  where  crops  are 
good  and  farmers  will  have  money  with  which  to  buy,  and  less  to 
sections  where  crops  are  short  and  farmers  will  have  less  to  spend. 
Few  farmers  realize  how  much  is  saved  by  an  even  distribution  of 
manufactured  articles  according  to  crop  prospects.  If  manufae- 
urers  avoid  heavy  losses  from  improper  distribution,  they  can 
afford  to  sell  on  better  terms,  with  r<  suiting  benefit  to  farmers. 

The  railroads  of  the  country,  which  move  crops  from  the  farm  to 
the  market,  must  know  in  ad-  ance  the  probable  size  of  the  crop  in 
order  to  provide  a  sufficient  number  of  cars  to  handle  it  effe<  tively 
and  without  delay.     Cases  are  not  infrequent  when  prices  of  grain 


10  BUREAU  OF    CROP  ESTIMATES. 

at  railroad  stations  are  reduced,  or  there  is  absolutely  no  sale  for  the 
grain,  because  cars  are  not  available  for  shipping,  the  farmer  thus 
being  among  the  sufferers. 

Prompt  and  reliable  information  regarding  crop  prospects  is 
equally  important  and  valuable  in  the  conduct  of  commercial, 
industrial,  and  transportation  enterprises.  The  earlier  the  informa- 
tion regarding  the  probable  production  of  the  great  agricultural 
commodities  can  be  published,  the  more  safely  and  economically 
can  the  business  of  the  country  be  managed  from  year  to  year. 

Retail  dealers  in  all  lines  of  goods,  whether  in  the  city  or  in  the 
country,  order  from  wholesale  merchants,  jobbers,  or  manufac- 
turers, the  goods  they  expect  to  sell  many  weeks  and  frequently 
many  months  before  actual  purchase  and  shipment.  Jobbers  follow 
the  same  course,  and  manufacturers  produce  the  goods  and  wares 
handled  by  merchants  of  every  class  far  ahead  of  the  time  of  their 
actual  distribution  and  consumption.  It  is  therefore  important 
that  they  have  the  earliest  information  possible  with  respect  to  crop 
prospects  and  the  probable  purchasing  power  of  the  farmers. 

With  such  information  carefully  and  scientifically  gathered  and 
compiled,  and  honestly  disseminated,  so  that  it  can  be  depended 
upon  to  be  as  accurate  as  any  forecast  or  estimate  can  possibly  be, 
and  relied  upon  as  emanating  from  an  impartial  and  disinterested 
source,  the  farmers,  the  merchants,  the  manufacturers,  and  the 
transportation  and  distributing  agencies  of  the  country  can  act  with 
a  degree  of  prudence  and  intelligence  not  possible  were  the  infor- 
mation lacking. 

PART  II.— SCOPE  AND  METHOD  OF  CROP  REPORTS. 

SCOPE  OF  CROP  REPORTS. 

Beginning  with  planting,  data  are  gathered  and  reports  made  as 
to  the  condition  and  acreage  of  each  of  the  principal  agricultural 
products,  such  as  corn,  wheat,  oats,  rye,  barley,  potatoes,  hay, 
cotton,  tobacco,  rice,  etc.  As  the  crops  progress  the  prospects  are 
reflected  in  monthly  condition  reports  upon  each  growing  crop ;  such 
reports  being  expressed  in  percentages,  100  representing  a  normal 
( -ondition.  Condition  reports,  expressed  in  percentages  of  a  normal, 
when  published,  are  coupled  with  a  statement  of  the  averages  of 
similar  reports  at  corresponding  dates  in  preceding  years  (usually 
10-year  averages);  by  such  comparison  the  condition  of  crops  in 
comparison  with  the  average  condition  is  readily  obtained.  At 
harvest  time  the  yields  per  acre  are  ascertained,  which,  being  mul- 
tiplied by  the  acreage  figures  already  ascertained,  give  the  pro- 
duction. 

The  following  tabulation  is  designed  to  show,  in  abbreviated 
form,  the  scope  of  monthly  crop  reports  of  the  Bureau  of  Crop 
Estimates,  in  1914,  and  the  time  ana  nature  of  inquiry  for  each 
crop.  Slight  modifications  may  be  made  from  time  to  time. 
Characters  are  placed  under  months  in  which  reports  are  published. 
Explanatory  key  is  given  at  the  top  of  the  tabulation. 


GOVERNMENT    CROP    PKPORTS. 


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14  BUREAU  OF   CROP  ESTIMATES. 

METHODS  OF  CROP  REPORTING. 

The  reports  issued  by  the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates  during  the 
year  include  data  relating  to  acreages,  conditions,  yields,  supplies, 
qualities,  and  values  of  farm  crops,  numbers  by  classes,  condition, 
and  values  of  farm  animals,  etc.  The  data  upon  which  such 
estimates  are  based  are  obtained  through  a  field  service  consisting 
of  a  corps  of  paid  State  field  agents  and  crop  specialists  and  a 
large  body  of  voluntary  crop  reporters  composed  of  the  following 
classes:  County  reporters,  township  reporters,  individual  farmers, 
and  several  lists  of  reporters  for  special  inquiries. 

The  field  service  consists  of  trained  field  agents,  one  assigned 
to  a  single  State  or  group  of  smaller  States  which  in  the  aggregate 
corresponds  in  area  and  crop  production  to  one  of  the  larger  States, 
who  devote  their  entire  time  to  the  work  and  who  travel  throughout 
their  territory  during  the  crop  season,  personally  inspecting  crop 
areas,  conferring  with  State  and  local  authorities,  private  and 
commercial  agencies,  and  others  interested  in  crop-reporting  work. 
Each  agent  supplements  his  own  observation  with  reports  from 
a  corps  of  selected  crop  reporters  in  his  territory,  who  report  directly 
to  him  and  are  wholly  independent  of  the  regular  crop  reporters 
who  report  directly  to  the  bureau. 

In  addition  to  the  regular  force  of  State  field  agents  the  bureau 
has  a  small  force  of  crop  specialists,  one  or  more  for  each  of  the 
important  special  crops,  such  as  cotton,  tobacco,  rice,  and  truck 
crops,  possessing  the  same  qualifications  and  performing  the  same 
duties  as  the  field  agents,  but  devoting  their  entire  time  to  special- 
izing on  the  particular  crops  to  which  they  are  assigned  and  travel- 
ing throughout  the  entire  region  in  which  they  are  grown.  These 
crop  specialists  also  have  selected  lists  of  crop  correspondents 
reporting  directly  to  them. 

Both  the  State  field  agents  and  the  crop  specialists  are  in  the 
classified  service  and  are  appointed  only  upon  certification  by  the 
Civil  Service  Commission  after  a  rigid  competitive  examination. 
They  are  selected  for  their  special  training  and  qualifications  for 
the  work  and,  as  they  acquire  knowledge  and  experience,  will 
become  recognized  authorities  in  crop  production  in  each  State. 

There  are  approximately  2,800  counties  of  agricultural  import- 
ance in  the  United  States.  In  each  the  department  has  a  principal 
county  reporter  who  maintains  an  organization  of  several  assistants. 
These  county  reporters  are  selected  with  special  rei  i  their 

qualifications  and  constitute  an  efficient  branch  of  the  crop- 
reporting  service.  They  make  the  county  the  geographical  unit 
of  their  reports,  and,  after  obtaining  data' each  month  from  their 
assistants  and  supplementing  these  with  information  obtained 
from  their  own  observation  and  knowledge,  report  directly  to  the 
department  at  Washington. 

In  practically  all  of  the  townships  and  voting  precincts  of  the 
United  States  in  which  farming  operations  are  extensively  carried 


GOVERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS.  15 

on  the  department  has  ''township*'  reporters  who  make  their 
immediate  neighborhood  area  with  which  they  are  personally 
familiar  the  geographical  basis  of  reports,  which  they  also  send 
directly  to  the  department  each  month.  There  are  about  32,000 
township  reporters. 

Finally,  at  the  end  of  the  growing  season  a  large  number  of 
individual  farmers  and  planters  r<  port  on  The  results  of  their  own 
individual  farming  operations  during  the  year;  valuable  data  are 
also  secured  from  :>(),000  mills  and  elevators. 

Because  of  the  specialized  nature  of  the  cotton  crop  the  reports 
concerning  it  are  handled  separately  from  reports  on  all  other 
crops.  In  addition  to  the  regular  estimates  of  the  State  agents. 
the  cotton  crop  specialist,  and  the  county  and  township  reporters, 
the  bureau  obtains  reports  on  acreage,  yields,  percentage  ginned, 
etc.,  from  many  thousand  special  reporters  who  are  intimately 
concerned  in  the  crop,  including  practically  all  the  ginners. 

TRANSMISSION  OF  REPORTS  TO  BUREAU  BY  CORRESPONDENTS. 

Previous  to  the  preparation  and  issuance  of  the  bureau'?  reports 
each  month  the  correspondents  of  the  several  snd  their  re- 

ports separately  and  independently  to  the  department  at  Wash- 
ington. 

In  order  to  prevent  any  possible  access  to  reports  which  relate  to 
speculative  crops,  and  to  render  it  absolutely  impossible  for  pre- 
mature infonnation  to  be  derived  from  them,  all  of  th<  reports 
from  the  State  field  agents,  as  well  as  those  from  the  crop  spe- 
cialists, are  sent  to  the  Secretary  of  Agriculture  in  specially  pre- 
pared envelopes.  By  an  arrangement  with  the  postal  authorities 
these  envelopes  are  delivered  to  the  Secretary  of  Agriculture  in 
sealed  mail  pouches.  These  pouches  are  opened  only  by  M'o  Secre- 
tary or  Assistant  Secretary,  and  the  reports,  with  •  iroken, 
are  immediately  placed  in  a  safe  in  the  Secretary's  office,  where 
they  remain  sealed  until  the  morning  of  tin1  day  on  which  the  bu- 
reau report  is  issued, when  they  are  delivered  to  the  statistician  1  > 
the  Secretary  or  the  Assistant  Secretary.  The  combination  for 
e  in  which  such  documents  are  kepi  is  known  only 
to  the  Secretary  and  the  Assistant  Secretary  of  Agriculture.  Reports 
from  field  agents  and  crop  specialists  residing  at  points  more  than 
500  miles  from  Washington  are  sent  by  telegraph,  in  cipher.  The 
reports  from  the  county  Correspondents,  township  correspondents. 
and  other  voluntary  crop  reporters  are  sent  to  the  Chief  of  the 
Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates  by  mail  in  sealed  envelopes. 

PREPARATION  OF  REPORTS. 

The  reports  received  by  the  department  from  the  different  i 
of  individual  corresponde]  bulated  and  compiled  and  the 

figure  for  each  separate  State  computed.    After  the  reporl 
the  different  counties  are  tabulated  a  true  weighted  figure  for  the 


16  BUREAU  OF    CROP  ESTIMATES. 

State  is  secured  by  taking  into  consideration  the  relative  value 
which  the  total  acreage  or  production  of  each  county  in  the  State 
bears  to  the  total  acreage  or  production  of  the  State.  The  weight 
figure  showing  the  value  of  the  county  is  applied  to  the  acreage, 
yield  per  acre,  or  condition,  whichever  itmay  be,  and  from  the  totals 
of  the  weights  and  the  extensions  a  weighted  average  for  the  State  is 
ascertained.  The  averages  for  speculative  crops  (corn,  wheat,  oats, 
and  cotton)  are  determined  by  computers  who  do  not  know  the 
particular  State  to  which  their  figures  relate. 

The  work  of  making  the  final  crop  estimates  each  month  culmi- 
nates at  sessions  of  the  crop  reporting  board,  composed  of  five  mem- 
bers, presided  over  by  the  statistician  and  chief  of  bureau  as  chair- 
man, whose  services  are  brought  into  requisition  each  crop-report- 
ing day  from  among  statisticians  and  officials  of  the  bureau,  and 
field  agents  and  crop  specialists  who  are  called  to  Washington  for 
the  purpose. 

The  personnel  of  the  board  is  changed  each  month.  The  meet- 
ings are  held  in  the  office  of  the  statistician,  which  is  kept  locked 
during  sessions,  no  one  being  allowed  to  enter  or  leave  the  room  or 
the  bureau,  and  all  telephones  being  disconnected. 

When  the  board  has  assembled,  reports  and  telegrams  regarding 
speculative  crops  from  field  agents  and  crop  specialists,  which  have 
been  placed  unopened  in  a  safe  in  the  office  of  the  Secretary  of 
Agriculture,  are  delivered  by  the  Secretary,  opened,  and  tabulated; 
and  the  figures,  by  States,  from  the  several  classes  of  correspondents 
and  agents  relating  to  all  crops  dealt  with  are  tabulated  in  con- 
venient parallel  columns;  the  board  is  thus  provided  with  several 
separate  estimates  covering  each  State  and  each  separate  crop, 
made  independently  by  the  respective  classes  of  correspondents 
and  agents  of  the  bureau,  each  reporting  for  a  territory  or  geographi- 
cal unit  with  which  he  is  thoroughly  familiar. 

Abstracts  of  the  weather  condition  reports  in  relation  to  the  dif- 
ferent crops,  by  States,  are  also  prepared  from  the  weekly  bulletins 
of  the  Weather  Bureau.  With  all  these  data  before  the  board,  each 
individual  member  computes  independently,  on  a  separate  sheet 
or  final  computation  slip,  his  own  estimate  of  the  acreage,  condi- 
tion, or  yield  of  each  crop,  or  of  the  number,  condition,  etc.,  of 
farm  animals,  for  each  State  separately.  These  results  are  then 
compared  and  discussed  by  the  board  under  the  supervision  of  the 
chairman,  and  the  final  figures  for  each  State  are  decided  upon. 

The  estimates  by  States  as  finally  determined  by  the  board  are 
weighted  by  acreage  or  other  figures  representing  the  relative  impor- 
tance of  the  crop  in  the  respective  States,  the  result  for  the  United 
States  being  a  true  weighted  average  for  each  subject. 

METHOD  OF  ISSUING  REPORTS. 

Reports  in  relation  to  cotton,  after  being  prepared  by  the  crop 
reporting  board  and  personally  approved  by  the  Secretary  of  Agri- 
culture, are  issued  on  or  about  the  first  day  of  each  month  during 


(;<>\  i:i;\  MJ3NT   CROP   REPORTS.  17 

the  growing  season,  and  reports  relating  to  the  principal  farm  crops 
an<l  live  stock  about  the  seventh  or  eighth  day  of  each  month.  In 
order  thai  the  information  contained  in  these  reporta  may  be  made 
available  simultaneously  throughout  the  entire  Uniced  States,  they 
are  handed,  at  an  announced  b  o  all  applicants 

and  to  the  Western  Union  Telegraph  Co.  and  I  Telegraph- 

Cable  Co.,  which  have  branch  offices  in  the  Department  of  Agri- 
culture, for  transmissi  i  exchanges  and  toth  These 
companies  have  reserved  their  lines  at  the  designated  time,  and 
forward  immediately  the  figures  of  most  interest.  A  multigraph 
statement,  containing  such  estimates  of  condition  or  actual  pro- 
duction, together  with  the  corresponding  estimates  of  brmer  years 
for  comparative  purp  irepared  and  mailed  immediately  to 
newspaper  publications. 

The  crop  estimates  for  the  State  and  for  the  United  States  as  a 
whole  are  telegraphed  immediately  to  the  Weather  Bureau  station 
director  of  each  State,  in  whose  office  copies  are  printed  and  mailed 
to  all  the  local  papers  in  the  Stale,  so  that  the  crop  estimates  of  the 
bureau  are  published  throughout  the  United  States  within  24  hours 
of  their  issuance. 

Promptly  after  the  issuing  of  the  report,  it,  together  with  other 
statistical  information  of  value  to  the  former  and  the  country  at 
large,  is  published  in  the  Agricultural  Outlook,  a  publication  of 
the  Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates,  under  the  authority  oi  the  Secretary 
of  Agriculture.  An  edition  of  over  225,000  copies  is  distributed 
to  the  correspondents  and  other  interested  parties  throughout  the 
United  States  each  month. 

PART  in.— BASES  OF  CROP  ESTIMATES. 

ACREAGE  ESTIMATES. 

For  many  years,  in  fact  since  the  bureau  was  organized  in  1862, 
it  has  been  the  practice  to  accept  the  estimates  of  acreage  planted 
to  different  crops  as  reported  by  the  Bureau  of  the  Censis  every 
10  years.1  Then  in  the  first  year  following  the  census  he  crop 
reporters  of  this  bureau  would  estimate  the  acreage  planed  as  a 
percentage  of  the  acreage  reported  by  the  census  for  the  preceding 
year;  the  second  year  following  the  census  the  acreage  woild  be 
estimated  as  a  percentage  of  the  acreage  estimated  the  preceding 
year,  and  so  on  until  figures  for  the  next  census  are  available. 
Theoretically,  if  there  is  no  bias  or  tendency  to  underestimate  or 
overestimate  on  the  part  of  crop  reporters,  the  acreage  estimate  by 
this  method  for  the  tenth  year  after  a  census  would  agree  \itii 
the  acreage  reported  by  the  census  for  that  year.  A  weak  mint 
in  the  system  which  has  long  been  recognized  is  the  fact  that  iirli- 

1  Prior  to  1SS0  the  census  did  not  show  acreages  of  crops—  merely  production 
hence  in  the  earlier  years  the  acreage  basis  was  obtained  oy  dividing  the  censis 
report  of  total  production  by  an  estimated  yield  per  acre. 


18  BUREAU  OF    CROP  ESTIMATES. 

vidual  crop  reports  are  not  free  from  bias,  and  there  appears  to  be 
a  fairly  uniform  tendency  to  either  overestimate  or  underestimate 
the  acreage,  the  result  being  a  cumulative  error  which  in  It)  years 
is  apt  to  result  in  a  wide  discrepancy  between  the  estimates  of  this 
bureau  and  the  figures  of  the  census.  To  illustrate,  if  the  Bureau  of 
the  Census  should  report  10,000,000  acres  planted  to  a  given  crop,  and 
there  should  be  a  uniform  tendency  on  the  part  of  the  crop  reporters 
of  this  bureau  to  underestimate  the  acreage  of  this  crop  an  average 
of  2  per  cent  annually,  this  bureau  might  estimate  the  acreage  as 
9,800,000  acres  the  first  year  after  the  census,  as  9,604,000  acres  the 
second  year,  as  9,412,000  acres  the  third  year,  and  so  on  until  the 
tenth  year,  when  the  bureau's  estimate  for  the  crop  would  be 
8,170,000.  If  during  the  10-year  period  there  had  actually  been 
no  change  in  the  acreage  planted  to  the  particular  crop  in  question . 
and  the  census  should  again  report  an  acreage  of  10,000,000,  the 
result  would  be  a  manifest  discrepancy  of  1,830,000  acres  between 
the  figures  of  this  bureau  and  those  of  the  census.  Further  dis- 
crepancies would  appear  in  the  yield  per  acre  and  the  total  yield. 

At  or  near  the  close  of  harvest  each  year  agents  and  crop  reporters 
of  the  bureiu  estimate  the  yield  per  acre,  in  bushels,  pounds,  or 
tons,  according  to  tlie  nature  of  the  product.  The  estimate  of 
total  production  is  readily  obtained  by  multiplying  the  yield  per 
acre  thus  obtained  by  the  previously  estimated  total  number  of 
acres. 

It  will  be  observed  that  the  method  of  estimating  the  yield  per 
acre  differs  materially  from  the  method  of  estimating  the  total 
acreage,  tie  acreage  estimate  being  based  upon  a  percentage  of  the 
preceding  year's  acreage,  thus  carrying  on  from  year  to  year  any 
error  mace  in  any  previous  year;  whereas  the  yield-per-acre  esti- 
mate, bang  based  upon  the  one  year  and  not  referring  to  any 
former  year,  is  not  affected  by  any  error  of  a  previous  year.  A 
constant  yearly  underestimate  of,  say,  2  per  cent  in  the  acre- 
age will  be  magnified  to  a  difference  of  about  10  per  cent  in 
5  years  and  20  per  cent  (approximately)  in  10  years.  A  constant 
yearly  lnderestimate  of  2  per  cent  in  the  yield  per  acre  will  not 
be  magaihed  in  5  or  10  years,  but,  on  the  other  hand,  in  comparing 
one  yeir's  estimated  yield  with  another  the  errors  will  be  neutral- 
ized; "'hat  is,  the  effect  would  be  the  same,  so  far  as  comparative 
value  is  concerned,  as  though  no  error  had  occurred.  In  short, 
biaseJ  errors  in  acreage  estimates  by  percentage  grow  from  year  to 
year,  biased  errors  in  yield-per-acre  estimates  neutralize  each 
othfl*. 

The  Bureau  of  the  Census  enumerates  total  acres  and  total  pro- 
duction of  crops;  if  yield  per  acre  is  wanted  it  is  obtained  by 
deriding  the  production  by  the  acres.  The  Bureau  of  Crop  Esti- 
obtains  directly  from  its  agents  and  correspondents  estimates 
(.1  acreage  (as  described)  and  yield  per  acre  and  arrives  at  the  total 
production  by  multiplying  acreage  by  yield  per  acre. 


QOl  Ki:\  .Mi:  NT   CROP   REPORTS. 

Nofa  Ing  the  diff<  r<  ace  in  methcx 

estimates  of  yie] 

aed  by 
ih"   lensus,  wit] 

LIVE-STOCK  ESTIMATES. 

tically  the  same  difficulty  is  encountered  ly  this  bureau  in 
the  numbers  of  different  classes  of  live  stock, i.e., 
the  probable  cumulati  resulting  from  a  tniform  t<  w 

to  either  underestimate  or  overestimate  and  the  :onseauent  appli- 
cation ofan  erroneou  ge  to  the  census  fgure  tne  fire 
and  to  an  erroneous  b;  ar  mtil  the  next cen- 
sus.  A  rurthercause  of  diverge  uce  betw<  en  the  lve-stock  estimates 
oi  this  bureau  and  the  figures  of  the  census,  and  brtween  any  two  cen- 
sus years,  results  from  taking  the  census  or  makng  the  estimates  at 
i.  [tcanreadJ  thatinthecaseof 
sheep  and  swine  the  estimates  cannotagreeunleBmadeasofth< 

use  of  the  normally  wide  fluctuations  in  numbers  clue  to 
natural increase  during  a  few  months  in  spring  md  the  large  de< 
due  to  slaughter  in  the  case  of  swine,  and  also  from  exposure  and 
other  causes  in  the  case  of  sheep  during  theffinter  month.-. 
While  the  Bureau  of  Crop  i.  hasin  recent  years 

cognizance1  of  the  tendency  to  1  Las  on  the  p^'t  of  its  field  for* 

.  ored  to  make  Buch  allowance  therefor  as  would  correct 
the  errors  involved,  besides  clucking  it)  estimates  against  the 
returns  of  i  ors  in  different  Statepand  such  other  reliable 

sources  of  information  as  are  available,  i  has  felt  the  need  for  a 
better  method  of  estimating  acreages  anl  live  stock  between  the 
census  vears. 

USE  OF  RURAL  MAILCARRIERS. 

As  an  experiment,  and  with  the  cooperation  of  the  Pest  Office 
Department,  an  attempt  was  made  in  tie  winter  months  of  1913-14 
Lire  accurate  data  as  to  acreage  planted  and  numbers  oi  live 
stock  in  the  State  of  Maryland  and  5  counties  in  South  Carolina 
by  means  of  short,  simple  Schedule  left  in  mail  boxes  and  co] 
looted   by  the  rural   mail   carriers.    In  theory  this  plan  should 
result  in  complete  returns  as  accunte  as  a  census,  but  in  practice 
.ound  that  less  than  4()  per  c  nt  of  the  farmers  would  till  out 
the  schedules.    The  experiment  demonstrated  thai   sati  factory 
results  by  this  method  can  not  b  secured  without  (1)  a  pe] 
canvass  and  actual  enumeration  '>"  the  rural  mail  carriers  similar 
to  that  of  the  census  enumerator.-  (2)  legislation  making  it  compul- 
sory upon  farmers  to  supply  tl '  information  requested;  or  (3)  a 
ampaigu  through  t£  i  ducate  the 

r  into  the  idea  of  furnishii|  information  of  a  statistical  i 
;■»  garding  their  i  primsily  for  their  own  benefit  and  inci- 

illy  for  the  benefit  of  otb 


20  BUREAU  OF    CROP  ESTIMATES. 

TYPICAL  FARMS  FOR  ESTIMATING  ACREAGE  AND  LIVE  STOCK. 

The  experiment  in  utilizing  the  services  of  rural  mail  carriers 
for  making  an  actual  enumeration  of  acreages  and  of  live  stock 
having  proved  Inadequate  and  unsatisfactory,  even  as  a  basis 
for  estimating,  ii  was  decided  to  establish  a  selected  list  of  typical 
farmers  in  each  iounty  in  the  United  States  who  will  agree  in  ad- 
vance to  cooperate  with  the  department  to  the  extent  of  furnish- 
ing accurate  statements  of  acreages  and  live  stock  on  their  farms 
for  a  series  of  yes^s.  These  reports  will  establish  a  basis  for  com- 
parison with  the  census  figures  and  will  enable  the  department  to 
estimate  with  a  hgh  degree  of  accuracy  the  changes  which  take 
place  annually  between  censuses.  In  future  years  it  will  be  a 
simple  matter  to  atpiy  the  rate  of  increase  or  decrease  in  acreages 
and  live  stock  whici  is  found  to  take  place  on  the  selected  typical 
farms  in  each  county  to  the  total  number  of  farms  reported  by  the 
Bureau  of  the  Censis,  and  the  results  can  be  used  to  check  the 
estimates  prepared  01  the  percentage  basis  under  the  present  sys- 
tem. A  much  highe-  degree  of  accuracy  will  also  be  possible  with 
census  returns  availaUe  every  5  years,  as  will  be  the  case  hereafter, 
instead  of  only  once  ii  10  years  as  heretofore. 

THE  "NORMAL"  VS  A  BASIS  OF  CONDITION  REPORTS. 

Special  considerationhas  been  given  for  many  years  to  the  so- 
called  "normal,  "  representing  a  condition  or  yield  of  100  per  cent, 
in  terms  of  which  all  th>  crop  condition  estimates  of  this  bureau 
are  expressed.  An  obje<tion  to  the  use  of  this  term  and  what  it 
represents,  as  a  basis  for  crop  reporting,  arises  from  its  apparent 
vagueness  and  the  fact  tha,  the  yield  represented  by  it  is  different 
for  each  locality  and  evenfor  each  farm,  thus  requiring  explana- 
tion in  order  to  be  undersood.  The  principal  advantage  of  the 
term  ' '  normal "  is  psychologcal  in  that  it  is  based  on  a  fundamental 
conception  which  is  fairly  \niform  and  clear  in  the  minds  of  all 
practical  farmers,  from  whon  over  99  per  cent  of  the  crop  condi- 
tion reports  of  this  bureau  areWeived. 

But  little  observation  and  experience  is  required  to  demonstrate 
that  the  average  farmer  think  of  his  crop  as  "crops"  and  not  in 
mathematical  terms  of  percentaes  or  averages,  although  he  can 
readily  express  the  estimated  y^ld  of  the  crop  in  term.1]  of  bushels, 
pounds,  or  tons.  When  the  farm r  sows  the  seed  in  spring  he  knows 
just  what  the  field  ought  to  yield  and  if  the  season  is  favorable  he 
expects  to  harvest  that  yield.  This  expected  yield  is  a  "full 
crop, "  such  as  he  has  harvested  \i  the  past  in  favorable  seasons. 
It  is  neither  a  maximum  possibloor  even  a  bumper  crop,  which 
occurs  only  at  rare  intervals  whu  com  lit  ions  are  exceedingly 
favorable,  nor  a  medium  or  small  trop  grown  under  one  or  more 
adverse  conditions.     Neither  is  it  ,n  average  crop,  which  rarely 


GOVERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS.  21 

occurs  because  of  the  effect  on  the  average  of  exfremely  low  or  ex- 
tremely  high  yields  in  exceptional  seasons.  [1  i  rather  the  typical 
cropr<  Logout 

of  consideration  altog  tonal  bump<  'cropand  the  more 

Or  less  frequent  partial  crop  failure.  Thisexpe<ted  yield  at  plant- 
ing time,  the  full  crop  thai  the  farmer  has  in  nind  when  he  thinks 
of  i!hi  3  Leld  he  expects  to  harvest,  or  the  typi  al  crop  represented 
by  the  d  crops  only,  is  the    normal,     or  sti 

adopted  by  this  bureau  for  expressing  conditi«n  during  the  growing 
•!  and  yield  al  harvest  time. 

The  observation  is  sometimes  ma  3m  of  the  use  of 

the  normal,  that  a  normal  crop  is  almost  i  *i  in  the  reports 

of  the  bureau.     A  little  reflection  will  shov  that  a  normal  yield 

for  an  entire  Sta r  the  United  States  is  no  to  be  expected  except 

on  rare  occasions.     Imagine  the  yields  of  iO  different  farm 
widely  Bca  I  ts  of  the  United  Stats:  by  definition  of  the 

term  normal  as  a  'full  crop,  "  or  expectaton  of  yield  at  planting 
time,  an  individual  will  not  secure  a  nomal  yield  every  year,  or 
even  every  two  years.  Suppose  each  indvidual  secured  a  normal 
crop  on  the  average  every  three  years,  ly  the  law  oi  probability 
the  chance  of  all  10  farmers  getting  a  nornal  crop  in  the  same  year 
is  1  to  30.  If  returns  of  individuals  wer-  published .  many  normals 
would  be  shown,  but  the  frequency  vould  be  less  in  a  county 
average,  still  less  in  a  State  average,  aid  rare  in  a  United  States 
average. 

The  crop  prospect  is  a  subject  of  vtal  interest  to  farmers  and, 
like  the  weather,  it  is  a  perennial  toic  of  discussion  during  the 
crop  season.  Almost  invariably  farners  speak  of  the  prospects 
as  fine,  good,  fair,  or  poor,  and  the-  describe  the  crop  as  full 
crop,  ""good  crop,  "  "average  crop  "(meaning  less  than  a  full  crop 
but  a  little  better  than  the  real  avenge),  "three-fourths  of  a  crop, "' 
or  "one-half  of  a  crop,  "  or  less  frequently  "75  per  cent  of  a  crop,  " 
"50  per  cent  of  a  crop, "  etc.  In  ne  South  the  cotton  crop  pros- 
pect is  usually  spokes  of  in  termsof  bales,  as  "three-fourths  bale 
per  acre,  "  "one-half  bale  per  acre"  or  "one-third  bale  per  a 
Few  farmers  think  of  their  cropsm  terms  of  exact  mathematical 
<  s  or,  in  fact,  k  now  what  tfe  exact  average  really  is,  because 
very  few  of  them  keep  accurate  rcords  or  take  the  trouble  to  strike 
averages  from  them.  It  is  equal]  true  that  farmers  do  not  generally 
speak  of  crop  conditions  and  i  i  >]  prospects  in  terms  of  a  normal,  but 
when  the  farmer  crop  reporters  ffe  told  that  The  normal  is  the  same 
as  their  conception  of  a  Kill  cro),  the  crop  which  thi  ir  farms  ougfit 
toyield  and  are  expected  to  y.eld  in  favorable  seasons,  and  that 
this  normal  is  represented   l>";   LOO,  ive  no  difficulty  in 

clearly  understanding  what  is  [leant  by  the-  normal  or  in  expressing 
their  estimates  in  percentages  »f  normal. 

Reports  of  crop  condition  <  ^pressed  in  percent  ig  of  normal  may 
indicate  in  a  general  way  die  probable  yield,   but  as  they  do  not 


: 


5TJREATJ  OF    CROP  ESTIMATES. 


include  the  variations  in  acreage  it  would  be  impracticable  to  fore- 
cast total  production  accurately  from  condition  estimates  alone. 
Hence,  to  avoid  errors  in  the  interpretation  of  condition  estimates 
by  those  who  do  not  have  the  average  figures  before  them,  the 
bureau  converts  tie  condition  estimates  into  quantitative  esti- 
mates of  yield  peracre,  which,  applied  to  the  estimated  acreage 
of  a  given  crop,  indcate  the  probable  total  production. 

The  question  is  frequently  asked  why  the  crop  estimates  are  not 
(1)  based  on  the  aveage  crop  (presumably  the  average  for  the  past 
5,  10,  or  20  years),  o\  (2)  on  the  crop  of  the  preceding  year,  or  (3) 
simply  estimated  for  the  present  year  in  terms  of  bushels,  pounds, 
or  tons. 

The  answer  to  the  fist  proposition  is  that  no  "average  crop  "  can 
properly  be  said  to  ex$t,  or  rather  it  would  not  correspond  to  any 
crop  actually  harvestel,  because  the  average  for  any  given  period 
is  unduly  influenced  ly  the  exceptionally  low  or  high  yields  of 
abnormal  seasons.  In  other  words,  the  average  is  a  fluctiuuing 
instead  of  a  fixed  standard.  Furthermore,  it  would  be  exceed- 
ingly difficult  to  obtait  satisfactory  estimates  of  crop  prospects 
based  on  average  yields  yom  farmer  crop  reporters,  who  constitute 
the  bulk  of  the  bureau's  \eld  force  in  reportinp  on  crop  conditions 
during  the  growing  season  Farmers  as  a  rule  do  not  keep  a  record 
of  average  yields  on  their  fVms  or  for  their  communities.  They  do, 
of  cotirse,  remember  abnomally  high  or  low  yields,  but  they  in- 
variably leave  such  yields  out  of  consideration  when  estimating 
crop  prospects.  If  the  avenge  crop,  say,  for  a  period  covering  the 
last  five  years,  were  adoptedas  the  standard,  it  would  be  necessary 
tor  the  bureau  to  estimate  he  average  condition  for  each  month 
of  the  growing  season  and  th?  average  yield  for  each  year  in  each 
county  and  township  in  theUnited  States  (over  30,000)  for  each 
of  t  he  crops  included  in  the  intimates  (50  or  more)  and  to  furnish 
each  crop  reporter  with  the  a^rage  production  of  each  crop  in  his 
t  erritory  for  use  in  making  u{  his  monthly  estimates  during  the 
year.  This  would  entail  an  earmous  amount  of  additional  work, 
and  the  average  would  be  unsatisfactory  because  the  smaller  the 
unit  of  territory  the  greater  woul\  be  the  nuctutation  in  the  average 
or  standard  en  used  by  crop  failures  or  occasional  bumper  yields. 
.V  single  illustration  will  suffice  o  make  this  point  clear.  Taking 
the  corn  crop  of  Kansas  as  an  eimple,  the  average  yield  of  corn 
per  acre  in  the  State  of  Kansas  foleach  of  10  years,  beginning  with 
1903,  was  as  follows:  20  9,  27.7,  $.9,  22.1,  22,  19.9,  19,  14.5,  23, 
3.2.    The  average  for  the  10  y<  ige  f or 

last  5  years  is  15.9  bushels;  Vor  the  preceding  5  years  24.3 
bushels.  On  the  other  hand,  the  'It1;:  of  a  normal  crop,  or  a  full 
crop,  was  nearly  cone  ag31.\forthela  orthe 

■(ling  5  years,  and  31 .0  for  the  0  years. 
The  answer  to  the  second  p.  .  namely,  a  comparison  of 

tliis  year's  crop  with  the  <"rop  of  thApreceding  year,  is  tnat  while 


QOVEBNMENT  CROP   REPORTS.  23 

farmers  remember  fairly  well  the  condition  and  yield  of  cr»  | 
the  past  year,  they  do  not  remember  them  with  sufficient  clei 

to  be  able  to  use  them  as  a  standard  of  comi 
this  year.    Furthermore,  the  crops  of  b  may  nave 

abnormally  high  or  low,  and  woulatl  Lake  aver} 

panson.     For  instance,  the  yield  of  corn  per  acre  in  Kansas 
bushels  in  L912,  01  q1  of  the  yield  per  acre  in  1911 

■  ushels).     The  yield  in  1913,  an  abnormally  dry  season 
only  3.2  bushels  per  acre,  which  was  14  per  cent  of  the  vield  in  1912. 
If  the  yield  per  acre  of  corn  in  Kansas  for  1914  should  be  21  bushel* 
per  acre,  it  would  be  656  per  cent  of  the  yield  of  1913.     It  is  appar- 
ent, therefore,  thai  the  abnormally  low  yield  of   1913  is  a  most 
jfactory  basis  of  comparison  lor  the  year  1914. 
The  third  proposition,  namely,  the  estimating  of  crops  directly 
in  terms  of  bushels,  pounds,  or  ton.-,  is  sometimes  advanced.     The 
objection  to  this  system  is  the  difficulty  that  most  people  experience 
in  estimating  accurately,  until  near  harvest,  the  number  of  bushels 
or  pounds  which  an  acre  will  yield,  even  though  they  may  be  good 
and  have  the  held  before  them.     Experience  ha-  demon- 
strated repeatedly  that  it  is  much  easier  to  estimate    proportions 
and  difl  In  comparing  one  period  with  another,  or  the  pro- 

duction of  i  with  the  produ<  ti  m  of  another  year,  or  con- 

dition and  prospective  yield  wi  Landard,  such  a.-  i  normal 

than  it  is  to  estimate  quantitatively  what  the  condition  or  yield 
for  a  given  area  actual  ygiventime.    Anyone  can  deinon- 

stratethis  principle  to  his  own  satisfy  tion  while  looking  a1  a  shelf 
partly  filled  with  books  oj  partly  filled  with  beans.    The 

r  jar  becomesin  ea  standard  or  normal  represented 

by  100  per  cent.     lie  will  probably  find  thai  he  can  i 
mate  that  the  .-hell  or  jar  i.-  three-fourths  or  7~>  pel  cent  full,  and 
while  hen.  per  cent  of  the  actual  num- 

ber of  actual  num  ans  in 

d    100  pei  '"  wiiii  cereals  or  o 

elativel}  i 

difficul  qI  of  tne  ac1  u«  I  pn  - 

iii  term.-  of  bushels.  snnpb    as 

>ercentages  of  a  normal  oj  I  would  not  mean  much, 

or  which  reason,  w  I 
verted  into  numerical  statement*  by  the  bureau  ami  their  equiva- 
lent.- in  bushel.-,  pounds,  or  tons  >i"  published  in  comparative 
Lents  showing  the  figures  for  the  previous  year  and  the  5  ■• 
lo  \  eai  ayerage. 

standards  or  bases  for  <o^  reporl 
been  thoroughly  and  red,  both  in  this  country 

and  abroad.     On  e\  ■  Lon  when  the  subject  has  been  con- 

sidered in  tiiis  bureau  the  normal  aed  to  possess 

ud\  amazes  and  fewer  disadvantage?   than   any   othei    standard. 


i; 


24  BUREAU  OF    CROP  ESTIMATES. 

The  Canadian  Government  has  adopted  as  its  basis  of  crop  esti- 
mates the  principle  of  the  10-year  average.  The  10-year  average 
has  also  been  adopted  by  the  International  Institute  of  Agriculture 
at  Rome,  and  the  institute  is  constantly  urging  its  adoption  by 
the  adhering  countries.  Great  Britain  still  uses  the  10-year  aver- 
age as  the  standard,  which  is  fluctuating.  Germany  and  a  few 
other  European  countries  use  the  numbers  1  to  5,  inclusive,  to 
represent  the  condition  of  excellent,  good,  fair,  poor,  or  very 
poor.  In  France  the  same  gradations  of  conditions  are  symbolized 
by  80  to  100,  60  to  80,  40  to  60,  20  to  40,^  and  1  to  20.  The  German 
system  results  in  confusion  because  in  Germany  the  number  1 
represents  the  highest  condition,  while  in  Sweden  it  represents 
the  lowest  condition;  besides,  the  terms  excellent,  good,  fair,  or 
poor  are  only  descriptive  and  are  open  to  interpretations  which 
interested  speculators  may  desire  to  place  upon  them. 

ACCURACY  OF  CONDITION  REPORTS. 

The  quantitative  interpretation  by  the  Department  of  Agri- 
culture of  condition  reports  of  principal  crops,  except  cotton,  was 
begun  in  1911.  A  review  of  these  interpretations,  or  forecasts, 
shows  that  those  made  in  June  varied  an  average  of  11.2  per  cent 
from  final  yield  estimates;  those  in  July  varied  9.6  per  cent;  in 
August  6.7  per  cent;  in  September  4.3  per  cent;  in  October  3.1 
per  cent.  Generally  forecasts  made  one  and  two  months  before 
the  harvest  inquiry  are  very  close  to  the  final  estimates  of  yield. 
The  above  percentages  do  not  reflect  the  accuracy  of  the  work 
of  estimating,  but  rather  reflect  the  variableness  of  conditions 
affecting  growing  crops,  which  is  shown  by  changes  which  take 
place  after  the  dates  to  which  the  conditon  reports  relate.  The 
condition  of  a  corn  crop  on  August  1  may  be  normal  with  a  fore- 
cast of  35  bushels  per  acre;  but  the  crop  may  be  practically  ruined 
10  days  later  by  a  devastating  hot  wind,  and  the  final  yield  be 
but  2  or  3  bushels  per  acre.  The  forecasts  are  such  figures  that, 
based  upon  average  conditions  in  past  years,  there  is  an  even 
chance  or  probability  that  the  final  yield  will  be  either  above 
or  below  the  figure  forecast.  A  variation  of  11.2  per  cent  from 
the  June  forecast  does  not  necessarily  indicate  an  error  of  11.2 
per  cent  in  the  forecast,  but  rather  indicates  an  average  subse- 
quent change  in  condition  of  11.2  per  cent  before  harvest. 


GOVERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS. 


25 


The  forecasts  made  during  the  pasl  three  years    and  final  esti- 
mates of  yield,  are  given  below: 


Forecast  made  in— 

Final 

June. 

July. 

August. 

Sep- 
tember. 

Octo- 
ber. 

esti- 
mate. 

Com  (bushels): 

1911       

25.5 
26.0 

27.8 

14.6 

13.9 
15.6 

11.8 

14.1 
11.7 

13.5 
14.0 
14.1 

23.2 
30.1 
26.9 

20.9 
25.6 

22.8 

16.0 
16.1 

S.6 
9.  1 
8.7 

31.7 

33.0 

81.7 
93. 1 

809.0 

1.40 
L.33 

22.6 
26.0 
25.0 

23.6 
27.7 

22.0 

23.  8 
27.9 
22.2 

23.9 
29.2 
23.1 

14.  S 
15.1 

L912 

1913             

"Winter  wheat  (busl  • 

1911 

15.3 
14.1 
15.9 

13.7 
13.8 
13.5 

14.7 

14.0 
15.0 

27.7 
29.3 

28.8 

24.9 
25.2 

21.  t 

16.1 

16.0 
16.5 

1912 

1913 

Spring  wheat  (bush 

1911 

1912 

L913 

All  wheat  (bushels): 

1911    

10.1 
15.1 
12.5 

12.8 
15.1 

15.0 

23.2 
31.9 

26.8 

19.8 
23.1 

9.8 
15.6 
13.0 

12.6 
IS.  1 
15.2 

23.9 
34.1 

20.3 
27.6 
23.2 

9.  i 
17.2 
13.0 

L912 

1913 

Oats  (.bushels): 

L9U              

15.9 
15.2 

24.4 

37.4 
29.2 

21.0 

29.7 
23.8 

i  5.  6 
16.8 
16  2 

1912  

1913 

Barley  (bush 

1911 

1912 

1913         

1911 

L912 

1913 

Flaxseed  (bushels): 

1911 

7..', 
9.4 

7 

31.9 
33.1 

92.0 

- 

1.49 
1.33 

L8.  1 

7.7 

8.  i 
32.1 

32. : 

74.2 
108.0 

714.6 

8.1 

8.7 

32.0 

30.9 

79  : 
108.8 

816.0 

7.0 
9.8 
7.8 

34.7 
31.1 

80.9 
L13.4 

90.4 

893.7 
785.5 

1.14 
1.  17 
1.31 

1913 

Riee  (bushels): 

1911 

1912 

1913 

1911 

1912            



1911 

1912 

L913   

1911 

1913 

........ 

Buckwheat  (bush<  1.    : 

1911 

19.6 

19.6 
21.  1 

10.  5 



1913 

1 

26 


BUREAU  OF    CROP  ESTIMATES. 


The  preliminary  estimates  of  trie  cotton  crop  in  December  each 
year  are  checked  against  the  monthly  and  annual  reports  of  pro- 
duction by  the  Bureau  of  the  Census.  The  census  reports,  which 
are  presumed  to  be  the  most  accurate  obtainable,  indicate  that  the 
Bureau  of  Crop  Estimates  has  overestimated  the  cotton  crop  6  times 
and  underestimated  the  crop  8  times  in  the  past  14  years." 

The  following  tabulation  gives  the  annual  estimates  of  the  De- 
partment of  Agriculture  of  the  production  of  cotton,  expressed  in 
pounds  of  lint,  the  quantity  as  finally  reported  by  the  Bureau  of 
the  Census,  and  the  percentage  of  overestimate  or  underestimate 
by  the  Department  of  Agriculture : 

Number  of  'pounds  of  lint  cotton  {net  weight)  as  estimated  in  Decem- 
ber, annually,  by  the  Department  of  Agriculture,  and  as  subse- 
quently reported  by  the  Bureau  of  the  Census,  for  each  of  the  seasons 
1900-1901  to  1913-14,  inclusive,  together  with  the  percentage  over- 
estimated or  underestimated  by  the  Department  of  Agriculture  each 


Pounds  of  cotton  (000 
omitted). 

I  »ver- 
estimated. 

Crop  year. 

Estimated 
by  Depart- 
ment of  Ag- 
riculture. 

Finally 
reported 
by  Census 

Bureau. 

Under- 
estimi 

1900-1901 

4,856,738 
4,529,954 
5,111,870 
4,889,796 
6,157,064 
4,860,217 
6,001,726 
5,581,968 
6,182,970 
1,826,344 
5,464,597 
7,121,713 
6,612,335 
6,542,850 

4,846,471 
4,550,950 
5,091,641 
4,716,591 
6,426,69* 
5,060,200 
6,354,110 
5,312,950 
6,336,070 
4,783,220 
5,551,790 
7,506,430 
6,556,500 
6,772,350 

I'<  r  • 

0.2 

1901-2...             .-   

0.  5 

1902-3 

.  t 
3.  7 

1903  4   .               

1904-5 

4.2 

1905-6 

4.0 

1906_7... 

1907  8                                      -  -    -  - 

5.1 

1908-9                                  ...  - 

2.  4 

1909-10   . .                       - 

.9 


1910-11.. 

1.6 

1911  12                             .    .- 

5. 1 

1912-13...            

.9 

1913  14                                

3.  I 

Total  1900-1914 

78,740,142 

70.MUt.071 

1.4 

31,879,051 
46,861,091 

31,307,373 
48,558,598 

1.8 

3.  •"> 

As  shown  in  the  tabulation  above,  during  the  past  14  years  (he 
Department  of  Agriculture  has  overestimated  the  crop 
and  undei  sstimated  it  eight  times.  In  years  of  overestimates  the 
average  error  was  L.8  per  cent;  in  those  of  tinderestimi  tea  the 
average  error  was  3.5  per  cent;  for  (ho  entire  14  years  I  h  >  average 
error  was  2.8  per  cent.     Balancing  the  ites  ;  nd  under- 

estimates shows,  for  the   en,  ire    period,  a  net   underestimate  of 
only  1.4  per  cent. 


GOVERNMENT   CROP   REPORTS.  2< 

CONCLUSION. 

It  ia  gratifying:  to  note  bow  generally  the  crop  estimates  of  the 
bureau  are  accepted  by  the  public  as  approximately  correct. 
This  is  duo  largely  to  the  patriotic  .-•  he  large  force  of  vol 

untary  crop  reporters  in  every  county  and  township  of  the  United 
States,  who  serve  without  compensation  other  than  the  cons<  ious- 
ness  of  a  public  duty  well  performed  and  such  Bmall  recognition  as 
can  be  extended  to  them  by  the  bureau  in  the  form  of  seeds  and 
publications;  to  the  zeal  and  efficiency  <^'  the  trained  field  agents 
of  the  bureau;  and  to  the  faithful,  efficient,  and  loyal  service  of  the 
clerical  force  and  administrative  officials  ol  the  Washington  office. 
It  is  hoped  that  with  the  liberal  appropriations  granted  by  Congress 
and  with  the  force,  equipment,  an  1  system  of  collecting  information 
fully  organized  for  efficient  sen  ice,  the  crop-estimating  work  of  the 
Department  of  Agriculture  will  become  increasingly  valuable  to 
the  farmers  and  distributors,  as  well  as  to  the  consumers,  of  the 
United  States. 

o 


UNIVERSITY  OF  FLORIDA 

3  1262  09216  9167 


